Forgotten Negotiation Lessons
Putin needs to be driven to the negotiating table. Leaders threaten to punish Putin after using chemical weapons, this tells Putin he gets at least one shot. Putin will watch world leaders argue on how to respond. Weak or slow response will green light Putin doing it again. Stop being reactionary and lay out our terms.
EU, NATO and the US must demand in unison Putin cease fire and negotiate or they be forced to get involved. Escalation levels should Putin not cease fire and negotiate:
- Stage 1: No-fly zone
- Stage 2: Liberate Ukraine
- Stage 3: The demilitarization and “denazification” of Russia. We did this with Germany and Japan in WWII
A real threat directly links our reaction to Putin’s action. Putin can stop the war at any time he does not need an exit strategy. We cannot let his threats hold us hostage, he is testing us.
Red Lines Putin has already crossed:
- Unprovoked attack on Sovereign Nation
- Attacking civilians
- Attacking hospitals
- Attacking evacuation routs
- Shooting at a nuclear reactor
- Terror campaigns & starvation
Worlds war III may be his intent or at least to test the boundaries of it. We should set the boundaries. Russia cannot win vs the western countries as he would need allies. Allies are forming with Belarus, Syria and China so far. We realize China has not declared a Russia war alliance. However, China’s local support of Russian media lies is preparing their people to distrust the west. This will assist China invading Taiwan.
While Putin thinks he can take the whole country uncontested he will continue. We must be proactive not reactive. If Putin want’s world war, best we see his true intent now.
Putin can back off at any stage and negotiate for a prize. Putin will not stop until he has something to lose. Now Putin knows which red lines can be crossed and his goal remains to reunite the old USSR.
No sanction is enough. Russian history of brutalities to their own people proves this. Financial sanctions are mitigated by China, bank sanctions are only 75% of Russian banks.
The media asks what does Putin want? What’s Putin exit strategy? Putin told us many times he wants to control the whole of Ukraine.
We need to escalate the deterrence not capitulation.
Putin has allies yet Ukraine does not have a full partner in this war.